“There’s a limit to how far you can outrun your party before political gravity eventually catches up with you, especially in a year like this,” said Calvin Moore, a spokesman for the Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ super PAC. Some Republicans argue that in this political environment, any conservative candidate who wins the primary will win the general election, so it’s less important for the party than it has been in the past to find a superstar candidate.
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This year, the Republican primary field includes a former contender on the reality TV show “Shark Tank” and a QAnon conspiracy theorist.īut now the district is even friendlier to Republicans: Trump won 53 percent of its voters in 2020. He has held it since then thanks in part to recruiting problems by Republicans, who have put forward an array of over-the-top and underwhelming candidates. Donald Trump carried it in 2016, the year O’Halleran won his seat. His approach is an example of the stubborn yet necessary hope that Democrats can both localize and personalize their races in order to overcome a punishing national environment.Įven before it was redrawn, O’Halleran’s district, which includes most of eastern Arizona, was highly competitive. Despite all the challenges Democrats face in the midterms this year - President Biden’s low approval ratings, historical precedent for the party in power, overheating inflation - O’Halleran believes old-fashioned retail politics will come through for him.
Many say he’s doomed to fail, but O’Halleran is unfazed. O’Halleran’s district was redrawn in 2020 and became tougher and Trumpier. That would be Representative Tom O’Halleran, a Democrat who has been in office since 2017 and who started out his political career as something few Democrats can claim - a Republican. But the Arizona politician you should be paying attention to - and who can potentially tell us a great deal about Democrats’ hopes of avoiding a 2022 wipeout in the House - probably isn’t on your radar.
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